In a country with a population of 1.4 billion, food is always the top priority.
Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations issued a warning that the global food supply chain may be interrupted in April-May due to the new pneumonia epidemic. In fact, the food crisis has already shown signs.
In the past two days, Hong Kong people flocked to supermarkets to snap up rice and eggs. Many supermarkets put rice on their shelves and were quickly sold out. Many people couldn't even buy a bag of rice in a few stores.
China has 1.4 billion people and is also the country that imports the most agricultural products in the world.
Under the epidemic situation, ordinary people hoard food, and now even the country is hoarding food.
On March 30, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen stated that Cambodia will ban the export of white rice and rice from April 5, except for fragrant rice. In fact, Cambodia exports more than 500,000 tons of rice every year, which is just the last player in the international food market.
. Vietnam Customs announced that starting at midnight on March 24, all kinds of rice products will be prohibited from exporting in any form. If the Cambodian rice embargo is nothing, then Vietnam’s move has caused quite a stir in the world food market.
Because Vietnam is the world's third largest rice exporter (the top two are Thailand and India), accounting for about 15% of global rice trade. In 2019, 6.37 million tons of rice were exported, of which China bought 477,000 tons.
On March 26, Thailand announced that it would ban the export of eggs for 7 days.
Kazakhstan has decided to restrict exports of 11 types of agricultural products, including wheat. In the global wheat market, Kazakhstan is one of the main exporters.
Serbia announced that it will suspend exports of agricultural products such as sunflower oil.
On March 28, Egyptian Minister of Trade and Industry Nevin Jameh said that in the next three months, the export of various bean products will be stopped.
Russia is an important exporter of agricultural products in the world. Although there is no export ban, it is reported that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has proposed the establishment of temporary quotas for grain exports. From April 1 to June 30, wheat, rye, barley and corn The export volume shall not exceed 700 tons.
Ukraine, another major wheat producer in the world, is also monitoring wheat exports. In fact, due to the impact of the epidemic, soybean exports from Brazil and Argentina have slowed down, and India, the world's largest rice exporter, has almost stagnated.
Iraq stated that in the next few weeks, it will need to import 250,000 tons of rice and 1 million tons of wheat to ensure the national grain reserves and provide food to the people.
Indonesia and the Philippines are already facing a food shortage, and the stored food can only last for a maximum of 3 months. Many other countries have begun to rush to buy. Major wheat importing countries such as Algeria and Turkey have issued procurement tenders. Morocco has also suspended wheat import tariffs.
In the US, wheat futures have risen by as much as 15% in half a month.
In the past few days, the self-media has not said much about the food crisis. It seems that tomorrow our rice bowl may not contain rice and noodles.
A global food crisis is possible. But the Chinese can rest assured that we can't get hungry. Let's do a few simple calculations.
Take a look at the big account.
According to the China Statistical Yearbook, China's per capita food consumption in 2018 was 127.2 kg. Based on a population of 1.4 billion, all Chinese eat 178 million tons of food a year. This is simply an astronomical number! Who makes more Chinese people?
Of the 178 million tons, the bulk is grains (such as rice, wheat, corn, etc.), accounting for 162 million tons. But China is also a big business. What is China's grain output in 2019? 614 million tons!
在1.78亿吨中，大部分为谷物（如大米，小麦，玉米等），占1.62亿吨。但是中国也是一个大企业。 2019年中国的粮食产量是多少？ 6.14亿吨！
Of course, one cannot simply say that the output is 614 million tons ≫ the consumption is 162 million tons. This is unscientific. Because a lot of the grain output is not for human consumption.
For example, corn has nearly 260 million tons. In fact, Chinese people rarely eat corn now. In 2019, China produced 540 million live pigs for slaughter, many of which were grown up on feed such as corn. Corn is also used for industrial purposes, such as the production of fuel ethanol, and grain to make wine.
Second, look at the staple food.
Northerners eat noodles, southerners eat rice. Therefore, wheat and rice are the most important staple foods for the Chinese. In 2019, China's rice output was 419.2 billion jin and wheat output was 267.2 billion jin. The self-sufficiency rate of these two staple foods has been stable at over 98%.
Third, look at imports.
Does China import a lot of food? many. It imports more than 100 million tons a year and is the world's largest importer of agricultural products. It seems that the quantity is large, but in fact, China's imports of rice and wheat as the two major staple foods in 2019 were only 3.48 million tons and 2.54 million tons respectively, accounting for only about 2% of total consumption.
On the contrary, China also exported 313,000 tons of wheat and 2.74 million tons of rice. The main reason for the import is to adjust the variety.
To give a simple example, now that people’s living standards have improved, they have to pay attention to the different flours used to make steamed buns, dumplings, noodles, and bread. Some of our wheat varieties have low yields, so we import them.
For another example, the delicious Thai fragrant rice that is imported is actually a prosperous life for the Chinese people, and the taste has changed.
Four look at inventory.
The Chinese are no more than the days when there is a pot of rice. Therefore, we still have a large inventory. According to the USDA data, the annual stock of rice in the previous market in the world was 175 million tons, and China accounted for nearly 120 million tons.
In addition, China still has 140 million tons of wheat stocks.
In 2019, China’s total imports of agricultural products amounted to more than 150 billion U.S. dollars. Among them, the single item accounted for the highest proportion of soybeans, which spent 35.34 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 23%.
Because of the economic and trade issues between China and the United States, China has actively tapped its potential at the beginning of 2019 by providing various subsidies to encourage domestic farmers to use a variety of soybeans.
In 2019, the national soybean planting area increased by 11%, the production of soybeans was 18.1 million tons, and the output increased by 2.15 million tons (an increase of 13%). But in fact, our soybean imports in 2019 are still as high as 88.51 million tons, an increase of 0.5% over 2018.
China still relies on imports for more than 80% of soybeans.
But importing so many soybeans is a very realistic and rational behavior. From the perspective of consumption, the Chinese people are getting more and more "oil and water". The consumption of meat products has increased four to five times in more than 30 years, and the consumption of fats is also growing rapidly.
Soybean is a very important oil crop and feed source (soybean meal). From the perspective of supply, there is a problem with growing soybeans: soybeans are low-yield crops, and the yield per unit area is relatively low.
In 2019, China planted 18.1 million tons of soybeans and used 140 million mu of land. If the imported 88.51 million tons are also planted by themselves, 685 million mu of land will be needed. In other words, if soybeans are to be self-sufficient, China will have to allocate 825 million mu of land.
In fact, China’s grain sown area totaled 1.741 billion mu in 2019.
With the development of foreign epidemics and fluctuations in the international food market, the domestic market is not completely unaffected. Countries like Argentina and Brazil have blocked soybean exports due to the epidemic, and soybean meal prices in some parts of the country have risen sharply.
This will eventually spread to the consumer sector. For example, the prices of meat products such as pork, beef, chicken, duck and fish we eat may increase. This is globalization.
In fact, hunger has never disappeared from the earth. According to United Nations data, more than 110 million people in the world are still facing severe food insecurity. Chinese people may not feel much in this regard.
From 2006 to 2008, an unprecedented global food crisis broke out. Rice prices rose by more than 200% on average, wheat rose by more than 135%, and corn rose by 125%. In the craziest period of time, rice prices more than doubled in 7 months.
Major exporters of agricultural products such as India, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia have blocked exports. Because of the food crisis, large-scale riots occurred in more than 30 countries including Egypt, Cameroon, South Africa, and Bangladesh.
In many poor countries such as Africa and Latin America, thousands of people have no money to buy the most basic rations, so they can only go hungry or even die because of lack of food.
Statistics show that at that time, more than 1 billion people in the world were starving, and 17,000 children died of hunger every day. In other words, one child was starved to death every 5 seconds.
We have to be fortunate that we no longer have to worry about food or starvation. However, as Yuan Longping said in an interview: a grain of grain can save a country, and it can trip a country.
For China, a country with a population of 1.4 billion, food security is always the top priority.
Don't be careless.
Zhengjie Bureau, an insightful, in-depth, and sincere financial executive, more than 10 mainstream financial communities including Wall Street, Snowball, Ant Financial, and World Managers are invited to settle in. Every day, the whole network reads more than 1 million times. Here, we penetrate the fog of information and solve the power of China's growth.